Randy Petersen gives his forecast for what to expect this year from travel-related loyalty programs.

I get a nearly constant flow of letters and email asking me about perceived changes in the frequent flier industry. Most years, I’ve had plenty to say; after all, along with champagne and streamers, the new year almost always brings with it a series of program “enhancements,” which are usually some sort of loss of benefits.

But I have to say that this year, we’ve been let off the hook—mostly. Yes, there are some adjustments some members will have to make, but overall, 2006 will more than likely mirror 2005, providing some degree of stability to the roller-coaster world of frequent flier programs.

Of course, there are exceptions. Delta SkyMiles, for example, recently announced that miles earned long ago in the first incarnation of the SkyMiles program (aptly called “Frequent Flyer”) would be merged into the current program. These miles were not only never supposed to expire, but were also tied to a “grandfathered” award chart, allowing members to redeem them at lower levels than the current program.

Delta also said that as of 2007, its highest level elite members—Platinum Medallion—will no longer get complimentary access to Crown Room Clubs in airports. SkyMiles has now lost two elite benefits in a row with nothing to balance it out. There is now nothing left in the current Medallion program that isn’t already being offered by other programs.

Then, of course, there’s the merger of the America West FlightFund and US Airways Dividend Miles programs. FlightFund members aren’t thrilled about it, as they see many of their previous benefits disappearing. I feel their pain, but I’m also glad that members of both programs actually have a program to belong to. Sure, we are losing the 20,000-mile off-peak award from US Airways, but then again, so did members of Continental OnePass and Northwest WorldPerks a few years back. But US Airways also got rid of that awful Saturday-night stayover requirement. And I like the new midlevel Platinum Elite level. It gives additional benefits for those in the 50,000–100,000-mile range, which formerly was a stretch. Some are unhappy because some elite earning bonuses have been reduced. The point is that like in any other business, there are tradeoffs, and these folks seem to have put their resources into maximizing the upgrade portion of the program, and have funded that by reducing a few things like the elite bonus.

The other big buzz is about Southwest Rapid Rewards. For years, if they were willing to forego a few blacked-out dates, Rapid Rewards members could claim an award on any Southwest flight.

Well, those days are gone. Today, all Rapid Rewards awards issued are free of blackout dates, but will be subject to seat restrictions.

The biggest concern, of course, is that the ready seat availability for which Southwest had been recognized in the past will cease to exist. “Capacity controls,” at least in common parlance, mean that only a select number of seats on a given flight are available for award use.

A few members have noted that, given the rules of Rapid Rewards, capacity controls on Southwest might be more onerous than they are with other airlines. Other capacity-controlled programs usually allow members to avoid seat restrictions by “paying” more miles. Southwest doesn’t offer that option.

It’s far too early to announce a verdict. I’m with most members on this one, and will simply adopt a “wait and see” approach.

There are other changes out there, including the merger of some major European programs, but aside from those I’ve mentioned, few will have a major impact on the typical American flier. Overall, in fact, I predict that in 2006, we’ll see many programs take huge strides toward making award redemption easier. There will be robust new online booking tools, more airlines jumping on the idea of 15,000-mile “short-hop” awards, and, I think, at least one program that will “guarantee” some sort of award redemption procedure.

Wait and see.

Ask Randy.

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randy petersen is publisher of Inside Flyer magazine and is president of Frequent Flyer Services. Email Randy at editor@executivetravelmag.com.