International numbers are a mixed bag

Major U.S. carriers started releasing their August traffic results last week, and even though August flights are usually chockablock with vacation and business travelers, the numbers show a continuation of a recent trend: Fewer passengers are flying on domestic routes than last year. American Airlines reported a 5.6 percent decline in domestic revenue passenger miles for August 2008 vs. the same month a year ago; for the first eight months of the year, Americans said, it has boarded 3 percent fewer passengers system-wide than for the same period in 2007. At United, August revenue passenger miles on North American routes posted a 6.7 percent drop over August 2007; for the January-August period, North American traffic is down 7.1 percent year-over-year, United said. Delta’s domestic revenue passenger miles for August were down 9.6 percent, including a 9.4 percent drop on mainline flights and a 13.5 percent plunge on Comair/Delta Connection services. For the first eight months, Delta’s domestic passenger traffic is down 4.2 percent from the same period in 2007. At US Airways, domestic revenue passenger miles dropped 2.2 percent for August, although the number of domestic passengers boarded fell off by 8.4 percent for the month, and 6.8 percent for the January-August period. Even Southwest Airlines reported an August decline of 5.2 percent in revenue passenger miles and a 6.6 percent drop for the month in the number of passengers boarded.

The status of international traffic is mixed. For the first eight months of 2008, American’s international passenger traffic is up just 1.5 percent; at United, January-August revenue passenger miles were down 5.2 percent on Pacific routes and 2 percent to Latin America, but up 10.9 percent across the Atlantic. And Delta posted impressive gains for the first eight months, with total international traffic jumping by 15.2 percent, including a 5.6 percent gain to Latin America, 16.2 percent across the Atlantic and 72.6 percent across the Pacific. The International Air Transport Association is predicting that the world’s airline industry will lose $5.2 billion in 2008, assuming an average crude oil price for the year of $113 a barrel. Most of that deficit will be at U.S. and Canadian airlines, which are expected to post a collective loss of $5 billion this year, IATA said.