Q. A couple of years ago, there were predictions that new ‘very light jets’ were going to revolutionize the air taxi business, making it easy and less expensive to order up a jet flight from point A to point B. What happened to that revolution?

A. The global financial crisis happened. Back in 2006, everyone had great expectations for this new generation of very small (four to eight passengers), relatively inexpensive jets. The FAA predicted in February 2006 that the air taxi business was “on the cusp of a new business model,” and that the new “microjets” (also called very light jets, or VLJs) would let business travelers leave from small airports close to their homes instead of relying on major or even regional airports. Several manufacturers were coming out with their own models of VLJs back then, and the FAA and other experts were predicting that the nation’s supply of VLJs would grow quickly, by up to 500 planes a year.

But as the world’s financial markets collapsed, demand for the microjets dropped precipitously. One of the first manufacturers to jump into the game -- Colorado-based Adam Aircraft – ceased operations and went out of business in February 2008. In September 2008, the Florida-based air taxi company DayJet, which had planned to offer “per-seat, on-demand” air taxi services using the new very light jets, stopped operating due to its inability to arrange financing. And in November 2008, another VLJ manufacturer – Eclipse Aviation – filed for Chapter 11 reorganization; in May 2009 that filing was converted to a Chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcy.

In its most recent (April 2009) forecast for the future of the aviation industry in the U.S., the FAA conceded that its earlier predictions for a boom in the growth of VLJ air taxi services had been premature. “Events since that time have dampened expectations for a rapid penetration of VLJs into the market,” the agency said. In 2008, it noted, manufacturers delivered only 262 VLJs instead of the 400 that had been expected. But the FAA is predicting that VLJs from the remaining manufacturers will keep coming, albeit at a slower pace. The agency is new predicting that the number of VLJs will grow by about 200 per year for the next two years, and then will increase to a rate of 270-300 annually, to a total of 4,875 by 2025.